Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.460401 0.531269 0.608450 0.698620 0.800944 0.913317 1.045937
2025-08-24 0.334733 0.429936 0.543939 0.689905 0.871173 1.088166 1.366837
2025-08-31 0.257982 0.359155 0.489185 0.667281 0.903402 1.204054 1.613943
2025-09-07 0.226608 0.336617 0.486232 0.702386 1.004032 1.406950 1.982095
2025-09-14 0.187083 0.294969 0.449475 0.683749 1.026074 1.503234 2.212591
2025-09-21 0.156732 0.260996 0.417521 0.665469 1.043053 1.589734 2.432210
2025-09-28 0.133513 0.233928 0.391394 0.651064 1.061687 1.677026 2.656553
2025-10-05 0.120987 0.221866 0.386335 0.667394 1.126840 1.836406 2.998277
2025-10-12 0.113526 0.217035 0.391872 0.700434 1.220120 2.044649 3.429141
2025-10-19 0.104234 0.207578 0.388275 0.717325 1.287736 2.216511 3.814057
2025-10-26 0.094586 0.196054 0.379556 0.724026 1.338030 2.363001 4.167117
2025-11-02 0.085032 0.183323 0.367052 0.722313 1.372884 2.485322 4.487272
2025-11-09 0.075351 0.169242 0.350856 0.712917 1.394558 2.589094 4.787803
2025-11-16 0.066874 0.156435 0.335637 0.703782 1.415926 2.694125 5.098882
2025-11-23 0.058056 0.141562 0.314496 0.680721 1.408733 2.747096 5.320632
2025-11-30 0.056029 0.141267 0.322734 0.716472 1.516351 3.015018 5.946952
2025-12-07 0.049275 0.129228 0.305046 0.697492 1.515103 3.081038 6.206166
2025-12-14 0.043401 0.118339 0.288461 0.678873 1.512480 3.143468 6.461703
2025-12-21 0.038540 0.109147 0.274476 0.664201 1.516259 3.217793 6.743852
2025-12-28 0.036353 0.106375 0.274744 0.680834 1.586715 3.427375 7.301546
2026-01-04 0.035409 0.106705 0.282271 0.714484 1.696080 3.721534 8.043823
2026-01-11 0.033507 0.104183 0.282671 0.731687 1.770865 3.950065 8.668030
2026-01-18 0.031180 0.100131 0.278846 0.738511 1.823032 4.135049 9.214458